Lagos, Nigeria – July 2025

When President Bola Tinubu announced sweeping reforms in mid-2023 — removing fuel subsidies, floating the naira, and overhauling FX regulations — Nigeria’s corporate giants braced for turbulence. And they got it.

Profits plunged, consumer demand dipped, and operational costs soared. For brands like Guinness Nigeria, Airtel Africa, and Nestlé Nigeria, the reforms hit bottom lines hard, sparking layoffs, factory shutdowns, and panicked shareholder meetings.

But two years on, there are signs of a turnaround.

“We’ve stabilized faster than expected,” said Funmilayo Akinlade, a financial analyst with Zenith Capital. “The pain is real, but so is the path to long-term profitability.”

The initial hit:

• Guinness Nigeria recorded a 40% drop in profits in FY2023, blaming forex losses and reduced consumer spending.

• Nestlé Nigeria cited inflationary pressure as a reason for downsizing some local product lines.

• Airtel Africa saw its naira revenue weaken, despite stable subscriber growth.

Analysts widely agree that the naira float and subsidy removal led to short-term shocks, with import-heavy sectors suffering most.

The rebound begins:

As of mid-2025, signs of macroeconomic stabilization are emerging:

• The Central Bank’s unified exchange rate has reduced arbitrage.

• Fuel import savings are being redirected into infrastructure and social investments.

• Investor confidence has ticked up, with portfolio inflows returning to Nigerian equities.

“Tinubu’s reforms are not just about fiscal cleanup,” said Muktar Aliyu, policy advisor with the Ministry of Finance. “They’re laying the groundwork for a stronger private sector.”

For corporates, that means re-strategizing for a leaner, more resilient future.

Nestlé has pivoted to local sourcing and affordable SKUs, reviving demand. Guinness Nigeria is expanding its non-alcoholic beverage line to suit price-conscious consumers. Airtel is investing in rural 4G infrastructure to tap into underserved markets.

But challenges remain. Inflation is still high, electricity costs unpredictable, and consumer wallets thin.

“These are structural reforms in a volatile environment,” said Temi Owolabi, head of a Lagos-based logistics startup. “But if they hold the line, Nigeria could become one of Africa’s most dynamic corporate markets.”

The question now: Can Nigeria’s corporates adapt fast enough to ride the rebound — or will policy fatigue set in before real dividends arrive?